Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

Update for September 22.


There are now just six weeks until election day. And this particular Tuesday, six weeks out, came with 10 new polls from nine states. It was a cache of data that updated the state of play in a number of battlegrounds while also providing new information in a pair of sporadically polled, but comfortably blue states. Across the board, however, the picture of the race for the White House at this moment remained one of stability. Joe Biden continues to hold durable leads in the important states that will determine whether he or President Donald Trump get to 270 electoral votes.

While Florida has drawn noticeably closer in recent days, those former blue wall states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- are still seemingly stubbornly out of the president's reach by five to seven points. For every poll in any of those three states that emerges showing the race around, say, three points, there is another one (or more) that has the battle in those states within that five to seven point range. The president does not need all three of those states, but he will need one and to win all the toss ups to get there.


Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.23]
The University of Georgia updated its outlook on the race for the Peach state's 16 electoral votes for the first time since a survey just before Super Tuesday back in March. The 51-43 Trump advantage then has closed to a tie, a finding that is consistent with where Georgia stands in the averages here. And as FHQ has said throughout the summer, if the discussion on election day about which states are the most competitive revolves around Georgia and those immediately around it in the order on the Spectrum below, then Biden is likely to be in pretty good shape.


Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.44]
Similar to the UGA series of surveys above, the Selzer polls in Iowa started out 2020 showing Trump up by a margin comparable to the results on election day in 2016. However, over time that lead has shrunk. The ten point advantage the president had over Biden in March around Super Tuesday fell to just one point three months later. Now, three months after that June survey, the battle for those six electoral votes in the Hawkeye state is a dead heat. Iowa is still slightly tipped in Trump's direction based on the full world of polling in the state in calendar 2020, but this series is indicative the trajectory of change there and where things may have leveled off.


Michigan
(Biden 46, Trump 41 via Market Research Group | Biden 49, Trump 44 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.42]
Both MRG and Ipsos have been in the field in Michigan this year, but the trajectory of change reflected in the two series is different over time. Biden gained in both sets, but Trump held pat in the low 40s in the MRG polls while his support grew at almost twice the rate of Biden's in the Ipsos set. The change in the latter can be at least partially pinned on the switch from a registered voter sample in April to likely voter screen being used now. But again, the margin in Michigan, one of those blue wall states from 2016, has been consistently in the seven to eight point range most of the summer. Polls that show a five point margin will cut into that over time, but slowly.


North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
The Ipsos survey of the Tar Heel state is the third from a closely contested toss up today that shows a race knotted at 47. Biden has been camped out around 47 percent support in the FHQ averages for a while, but Trump has generally trailed that but a couple of points. North Carolina, like Florida, has narrowed some of late, but the rate of change is much less dramatic in the Tar Heel state. The tight range of results has something to do with that. Biden's leads tend to top out now at +3 and the president's peak in August and September has been +2. Gone are those mid-summer polls during Biden's polling surge where his advantages stretched occasionally into the mid- and upper single digits.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.16]
Ipsos also conducted a survey in Pennsylvania, but unlike in North Carolina, this was the firm's second in the Keystone state. As with the series discussed above in Georgia and Iowa, the Ipsos series in Pennsylvania found a tighter race now than in April. But that six point Biden lead then in a registered voter survey was cut in half under a likely voter screen. That transition may explain the bulk of that change rather than any natural narrowing. One thing that can be said about Pennsylvania polling in September is that Joe Biden is at or over 50 precent much less often than he was in earlier periods. The former vice president does not tend to be far under that majority threshold, but that is also indicative of the subtle changes that may be taking place in the commonwealth and elsewhere.


South Carolina
(Trump 50, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +5.98]
What can one say about the state of polling in the Palmetto state? The latest Morning Consult survey there is very much in line with where polling has been all summer there. In fact, the five point Trump edge in the last Morning Consult poll in early August has barely changed. South Carolina is closer than it was in 2016, but it is clearly polling at a Lean Trump state with a margin just inside the Lean/Toss Up line on the lower end of the Lean range.


Vermont
(Biden 56, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +27.44]
Braun Research brings the first glimpse of the race in the Green Mountain state all year. No, Vermont was never at risk of jumping the partisan line to join the Trump coalition of state much less shift into a less dark blue category. But it is good to confirm that with some 2020 data. But as was the case with the first Oregon poll to be released recently, this first foray in Vermont does not appear all that different than how things looked there in November 2016. That has not been true in all of the Strong Biden states, but it has in a handful of underpolled states in that category.


Washington
(Biden 58, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +24.46]
The case in point is probably Washington. Biden has over performed Clinton in this solidly blue state while Trump has lagged behind his showing from four years ago. The latest Strategies 360 survey is indicative of that on some level. It has Biden right on his established FHQ average share of support. Trump, on the other hand, is running a little ahead of his own average but still almost 25 points behind.


Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]
Finally, Ipsos also surveyed Wisconsin and ended up with results that differ from some of the other Ipsos polls out today. The switch from registered to likely voter samples in Michigan and Pennsylvania drove much of the narrowing both states. But the story is slightly different in the Wisconsin series. The April registered voter survey from the firm had Biden up only three with more undecided voters and more support for other candidates. Both trailed off significantly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but in Wisconsin, the undecideds remained stable and the other support dried up and ostensibly shifted to the two major candidates, but more so to Biden. That is part of the reason why the former vice president's margin grew from April to now in that sample transition, bringing the Ipsos poll in line with where the FHQ average margin in the Badger state currently rests.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(34)
NY-29
(105)
CO-9
(197)
AZ-11
ME CD2-1
(320 | 230)
KS-6
NE CD1-1
(100)
ID-4
(26)
WA-12
(117)
VA-13
(210)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
ME CD1-1
(128)
ME-2
(212)
GA-16
(203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(187)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
OH-18
(181)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

For a day with two polls, the expectations may be high for some changes. But there just were not any or very many really. The map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago, and there was but one subtle shift on the Electoral College Spectrum. Iowa and Ohio switched spots with the Hawkeye state moving one cell closer to the partisan line separating the Biden and Trump states. But those two -- Iowa and Ohio -- are essentially tied at the moment within a one hundredth of a point of each other in their margins.

Pennsylvania continues to hold down the distinction of being the tipping point state in the order. Trump still has the ground between the partisan line and the Keystone state to make up in order to get back within striking distance of 270.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 22 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Texas
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

The Electoral College Map (7/29/20)

Update for July 29.


Changes (July 29)
StateBeforeAfter
PennsylvaniaLean BidenToss Up Biden
Following a day with a slew of poll releases, Wednesday was a bit more pedestrian. With 97 days to go until election day, there was a tenth wave of battleground surveys from Change Research, a new poll out of Georgia and a leftover from yesterday updating the race in Washington state.

All of that was enough to once again push Pennsylvania below the Lean/Toss Up line, but there is a cluster of states -- Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- all within a point of that barrier. The back and forth is consequential on some level, but ultimately only drives home the point that each is tipped around five points in Biden's direction.


Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia (Trump 49, Biden 46):
Monmouth released another state-level poll with three different assumptions about turnout in their samples. And like the one in Pennsylvania earlier this month, as the samples moved from registered voters to likely with high turnout to likely voters with an assumed lower turnout, the more Trump favorable the results. The difference in this case is that the range -- from tied to Trump +3 -- was much smaller. That meant the impact of which survey assumption was used had minimal impact on the averages here at FHQ. Georgia would have remained a Trump toss up and still on the Watch List regardless. But using the version with the low turnout assumption -- as was the case with Pennsylvania before -- switched Georgia and Ohio in the rank ordering on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Both, however, continue to be close to each other in a battle for the distinction of being the closest state on the board.


Washington (Biden 62, Trump 28):
It has been more than two months since the last survey was in the field in the Evergreen state, and the picture of the race -- this time from Survey USA -- was largely similar from a 30,000 foot view. Biden leads and big in a state the former vice president will likely carry in the fall. But what separates this survey from the last poll of the state in May is that Biden is at his high water mark there so far while Trump is at his nadir. Biden was running about four points above his FHQ average while Trump was running around four points behind his. That expanded the average margin in Biden's favor in a state that has seen relatively little polling in 2020.


Change Research (July wave #2):
The last couple of days have been about series of polls in multiple states. Yesterday saw battleground waves from Morning Consult and another seven state series from Public Policy Polling. Today brought the latest wave of battleground polling from Change Research. Overall, this series showed a bit of a contraction in Biden's earlier July leads across the six states. On average, the former vice president lost 2.5 points while maintaining leads in all six. Moreover, the range of margins remains quite tight and because of that the order does not exactly match the rank ordering established on the Spectrum below. But the differences are not that large. The key is that Biden is ahead in all six states -- the core of any path to 270 -- but saw his edge wane a bit. But it is a small enough change to be chalked up to variation across surveys.

Arizona: Biden +2 (-4 since first July wave)
Pennsylvania: Biden +2 (-6)
North Carolina: Biden +3 (+2)
Florida: Biden +3 (-4)
Michigan: Biden +4 (-2)
Wisconsin: Biden +5 (-1)


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(173)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(56)
MA-11
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(122)
NE-2
(45)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308 | 236)
MT-3
(103)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
UT-6
(100)
ND-3
(30)
WA-12
(117)
ME-2
(199)
NC-15
(334 | 219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
KY-8
(27)
MD-10
(127)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(147)
MN-10
(222)
GA-16
(186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
AR-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
CT-7
(159)
WI-10
NE CD2-1
(249)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
KS-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden would cross the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

Georgia and Ohio swapping spots on the Spectrum was alluded to above, but there were some other subtle changes triggered by the addition of these polls. Washington moved up a couple of cells in the order in the far left column, deep in Biden's coalition of states. And Florida and New Hampshire trade positions as well with the result that New Hampshire and not Florida is now sharing the tipping point state distinction with Pennsylvania again. A candidate would need both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to crest above 270 if the results on November 3 returned an order like this.

The Watch List below carried over the same 14 state from a day ago, but saw the potential Pennsylvania switch change another possible push into the Lean Biden category. The ones that matter on the list remain Georgia and Ohio. They are the states that could alter the electoral vote tally for the candidates and not just categories within their coalitions.

And yes, Nevada and New Hampshire continue to be states to watch as well.

--
There were also no new polls from Nevada nor New Hampshire today.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 90.
Days since the last New Hampshire poll was in the field: 43.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/28/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/27/20)

The Electoral College Map (7/26/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON

Election type: primary
Date: March 10
Number of delegates: 109 [19 at-large, 12 PLEOs, 58 congressional district, 20 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Washington state has had a presidential primary since 1992, but 2020 will be the first year in which Democrats in the state will utilize a presidential primary to allocate delegates to the national convention. That has not been a particularly strategic decision to tamp down on turnout in the contest. Rather, it has been a function of the registration system in the Evergreen state and whether to allow unaffiliated voters to participate. The legislation that passed and was signed into law barred unaffiliated voters and also pushed up the date of the Washington presidential primary from late May to mid-March.

The state, then, will not only have an all vote-by-mail primary rather than a caucus, but will also see that contest fall on a much earlier date than has been the case for the primary in the past. [Washington did have February caucuses in 2008 when those dates were in compliance with national party rules.]

Finally, there were also some changes to the Washington delegation for 2020. As compared to 2016, Washington Democrats lost nine district delegates and three at-large delegates, but gained a couple of superdelegates. PLEO delegates maintained their 2016 level.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Washington's 58 congressional district delegates are split across 10 congressional districts and have a variation of eight delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Washington Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 3 delegates*
CD5 - 4 delegates
CD6 - 6 delegates
CD7 - 11 delegates*
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 7 delegates*
CD10 - 5 delegates*

The eight delegate spread from the 4th district to the 7th district is among the widest gaps in the country. The 11 delegates in the 7th are as well. It is a very Democratic district compared to the others in the Evergreen state.

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 58 district delegates in Washington are chosen at congressional district caucuses on May 30 based on the results in the respective congressional districts. PLEO delegates and then at-large delegates will be selected by the Democratic state party committee on June 13.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-June when the Washington statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them. This is unlikely to be a factor with just two viable candidates in the race.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Washington State Democrats Opt for Presidential Primary Over Caucuses

It was decision time this past weekend as the Washington State Democratic Party convened in Pasco. Among the items on the agenda was delegate selection in 2020. Chiefly, the question before the Rules Committee on Saturday and the State Coordinating Committee on Sunday was whether the party would continue to use the caucus/convention system it has used to allocate and select delegates to the national convention throughout the post-reform era.

But a newly early and revamped semi-open presidential primary bill signed into law in March removed most of the conflicts the Democratic Party in the Evergreen state have historically had with the primary option available to Washington parties in the past. Moreover, the state party has been facing pressure from vocal Democrats in the state to make the process more democratic; something that was demonstrated by the over 93 percent support for the primary option in an unscientific poll open during the draft delegate selection plan public comment period. On top of that, the national party rules for the 2020 cycle urge state parties to increase participation and use state-run primaries where available.

In total, that was enough to nudge the Washington State Democratic Party to break with tradition. By a vote of 11-5 on Saturday, the Rules Committee recommended that the party shift to the primary option. That was followed on Sunday by 121-40 vote by the State Coordinating Committee in favor of a primary.

The decision officially moves Washington Democrats into a March 10 slot on the 2020 presidential primary calendar. That primary will coincide with contests in six other states including the primary in neighboring Idaho.


--
The Washington primary change is now reflected on the 2020 FHQ Presidential Primary Calendar.


Related:
1/16/19: Washington State Legislation Would Again Try to Move Presidential Primary to March

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Washington Presidential Primary Shifts Up to March 10 After Inslee Adds Signature

Presidential candidate and Washington governor, Jay Inslee (D) signed SB 5273 into law on Thursday afternoon, March 14, moving the presidential primary in the Evergreen state from the fourth Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in March.

The shift gives the governor a glimmer of something positive after Super Tuesday should he make it that far in the currently wide open race.

That said, there is some question as to whether Washington Democrats will ultimately opt for the newly timed primary or for the caucus/convention format the party has used throughout the post-reform era. While the primary law changes the date of the primary, it also alters the operation of the mail-in vote contest. Primary voters will now have to check a box on the Democratic ballot publicly affirming they are Democrats in order to have their ballots counted toward the vote that will determine delegate allocation to the national convention. That was the price Washington had to pay to bring their process (in a state with no partisan registration) in line with the national party rules.

The Washington State Democratic Party will make that primary or caucus determination at its April 7 state central committee meeting. The primary would be on March 10 and the caucuses on March 21. The month of delegate allocation is known, then, but the exact date remains on hold until April.

Washington becomes the first state to have legislation pass and be signed into law moving its primary during the 2019 state legislative session, but follows states like California and North Carolina that moved prior to this year for the 2020 cycle.

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The Washington primary change has been added to the 2020 FHQ Presidential Primary Calendar.


Related:
Washington State Legislation Would Again Try to Move Presidential Primary to March

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Washington Democrats Will Allocate Delegates in March, but How?

Last week the Washington State Democratic Party released and opened for public comment their draft delegate selection plan for 2020. Only, rather than just one plan, the party released two plans contingent on the mode of delegate allocation the party opts to use during its April 7 central committee meeting. In doing this, the party has made the primary or caucus question the one most likely to draw public comment in the next thirty days before the central committee votes.

And bear in mind that while those comments are not binding on the decision of the state central committee, they are submitted along with the draft delegate selection plan of choice to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee as part of the plan approval process. Under the hypothetical scenario, then, that the party chooses to continue with the caucus/convention system as the means by which delegates from the state will be allocated and selected even in the face of public support for the primary, the party would have some explaining to do before the RBC. And that is doubly true considering 1) the Democratic primary bill that has made its way through the Washington state legislature is more likely than not to be signed into law and 2) the RBC will be operating under the guidance of Rule 2.K in which "[state] parties are encouraged to use government-run primaries."

In that situation, the Washington State Democratic Party would have to make a very persuasive case to the RBC for why the party chose caucuses over the primary pushed through and passed by a Democratic-controlled state government. And the Democratic bill got the green light -- that it would be consistent with DNC rules -- from RBC member and WSDP parliamentarian, David McDonald during the committee hearings in each legislative chamber.

That is a tough sell.

It seems, then, that the best case to be made for retaining the caucuses is one in which there is a groundswell of support for it in this public comment stage followed by a state central committee vote in favor of the caucuses.

But assuming Governor Inslee (D) signs SB 5273, then it is quite likely the party opts for the primary.

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Regardless of which option is chosen on April 7 in Washington, the two plans do clearly indicate a couple of important timing points. First, the date listed for the primary in the primary plan is March 10. It is clear then that the state party is assuming the primary bill heading to Inslee's desk -- the one moving the primary from May to March -- will be signed into law. Additionally, the alternate caucuses plan includes a Saturday, March 21 date for precinct caucuses should that plan be adopted and approved by the RBC. Should the party move in that direction, it would constitute a caucus/convention process that begins on the third Saturday in March rather than the fourth Saturday in March on which the precinct caucuses were held in 2016.



Related:
Washington State Legislation Would Again Try to Move Presidential Primary to March

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Washington State House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

In a roughly party-line vote, the Washington state House on Monday passed legislation to move the presidential primary in the Evergreen state from the fourth Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in March.

SB 5273 passed the House by a 54-42 vote that saw just one Democrat from the chamber majority join House Republicans. This Democrats-for/Republicans-against pattern mirrored not only the vote at the committee stage in the House, but also the previous floor vote in Senate.

And the battle lines were the same. Republicans more sympathetic to Secretary of State Kim Wyman's (R) bill balked at the Democratic version throughout the legislative process for barring unaffiliated voters from participating in the primary and for making public which ballot voters choose. In fact, several Republican-sponsored amendments were raised on the House floor to reverse both changes to the primary law. One struck much of the language from the Senate-passed Democratic version of the bill and insert provisions from a Republican version left languishing in committee in both the state House and Senate. Two others were more narrow in scope, attempting to remove the data-gathering portion and allowing unaffiliated voters to participate through a separate mail ballot. A final Republican amendment took a different tack. It simply pushed the conflict items aside and addressed the primary date change alone.

None passed muster with a majority of the House, clearing the way for an up-or-down vote on the bill that came out of committee.

Since the version that passed the House is identical the Senate-passed version, the bill is done in the legislative branch and now heads off to Governor Jay Inslee (D) for his consideration.

And the governor may now have at least some interest in an earlier Washington primary (even if it follows Super Tuesday by a week).


Related:
Washington State Legislation Would Again Try to Move Presidential Primary to March

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Senate-Passed Washington Presidential Primary Bill Passes House Committee Stage on Party Line Vote

On a 5-4 party-line vote, the Washington House Committee on State Government and Tribal Affairs passed SB 5273 on February 19.

The bill would move the presidential primary in the Evergreen state from late May to the second Tuesday in March. That provision saw wide support in the brief comments on the bill before the committee rendered its vote. Republicans on the committee balked at the unaffiliated voters votes not counting. While that provision has been advocated for by Secretary of State Kim Wyman (R) and saw similar Republican support in the state Senate during the bill's consideration there, committee testimony on both sides of the capitol has repeatedly warned that implementing such a measure would likely draw the ire of both national parties and force the state parties in Washington to move back toward caucuses in lieu of the primary option.

The bill now moves, unamended from its Senate-passed version, to the floor of the House for consideration.

Related:
Washington State Legislation Would Again Try to Move Presidential Primary to March